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March 31, 2005

But it's NOT TV!


With ticket prices continuing to rise, consumers are once again reminded that the movies are not free television. And yet, seeking to remain out of bankruptcy, exhibitors have been gravitating to preshow advertising as the newest revenue stream untouchable by the distributors (studios). As with concession sales (see the $10 tub of popcorn and $5 hot dogs), theaters keep advertising dollars so that they can pay for all of the new stadium seating multiplexes that have been built over the last several years.

But all is not well with Joe Moviegoer according to a survey, released in November 2004, by InsightExpress:

"Of the moviegoers surveyed, 53% said that they wanted exhibs to stop showing commercials, while 27% said they go to the movies less because of the blurb barrage that now opens films on many screens. By comparison, just 13% said they liked the onscreen ads." (see Variety)
Theater owners do have concern over declining admissions in general -- box office revenue has only climbed in the last few years because of increasing ticket prices -- so anything that might exacerbate the problem generates press. In their favor, a 2003 Arbitron study found that 66% of audiences said they agreed with the statement, "I don't mind the advertisements they put on before the movie begins," and that that younger people and those who go to the movies most frequently were the least likely to object to the messages.
However, the value of this market, $400 million by the reckoning of the Cinema Advertising Council, might shrink if legislators have their way. Interviewed on the Early Show on CBS (see article), Connecticut state representative Andrew Fleishman has submitted a bill that would require theaters to post the actual time a movie starts, not just when previews and ads begin, in advertisements.

For now, when deciding whether to try and avoid the commericals, consumers must consider which is more important: location or irritation avoidance.


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The March of the Mouse


Continuing to signal its preparation for a future without Pixar, Disney announced last November the greenlight for Toy Story 3 (see The Hollywood Reporter). To be produced out of its new digital animation facility, by proceeding without Pixar, Disney, who owns the rights to the Toy Story franchise, is showing less deference to Steve Jobs and John Lasseter. While Robert Iger, soon to be new president of Disney, has announced his intention to retain Pixar, as The Seattle Times points out (see article), this smacks of ransom -- if you leave, we will exploit your children in our straight-to-dvd sequels (see Beauty and the Beast and Aladdin).

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March of the Small Distributors


Money is seeking content and outlets at Millenium Films and ContentFilm. Seeking to bolster his production slate, Avi Lerner entered Millenium Films into a five picture production deal with Steven Haft's Haft Entertainment. The deal will focus on $15 to $45 million films that will be secured with foreign sales from Millenium's Nu Image (see Variety).

ContentFilm, coming off a balked merger with First Look Media, has struck a deal with DVD distributor Image Entertainment to co-produce up to four theatrical films per year. Produced under a new joint label, Image will distribute the films for domestic home entertainment and Content International will handle international sales. ContentFilm, a conglomeration of the former Winchester, Cobalt Media and ContentFilm outfits, was likely looking to bolster its ability to independently finance films by securing distribution into the lucrative DVD marketplace (see Variety).


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Convergence Redux


Yahoo! is determined to be more than a portal or search engine (Google) and support an open media destination site (as opposed to AOL). The company took its first step in pronouncing these intentions when it hired former Warner Brothers studio boss Terry Semel as its chairman and CEO. Now it is cementing its strategy with the hire of former ABC Entertainment TV Group chairman Lloyd Braun to lead its Media Group (see Variety article) and set up shop in MGM's old buildings in Santa Monica (see LA Times article).

Already successful with supplemental content for promoting films (Ocean's Twelve) and television shows (Mark Burnett's The Apprentice), Yahoo! is looking to identify a new form of entertainment product that is conducive to the characteristics of the web.

Let's not forget that Yahoo! has failed in previous attempts at porting content online, including "an online business channel called Finance Vision and Yahoo Platinum, which featured video and audio content from TV shows." As pointed out, in a strong analysis from Mercury News (see article), the web is not television or the movies. Richard Wolpert, chief strategy officer at RealNetworks put it best,

``TV still works really, really well, and with TiVo, it works even better,'' he said. ``To simply take a linear entertainment experience and put it online does not do much to enhance the experience. Just taking highlights or samples of an episode and posting it on the Web is not that interesting.''
We will see if Braun manages to follow through on his own sentiment, "The content needs to be in a form that exploits the characteristics (of the Internet)," he said. "You don't need to get what you can get on your big flatscreen television set."

Given Semel's contention, at an industry conference in January, that Yahoo! would follow a path laid out by MTV to become a media network -- aggregate original music video content, draw viewers and then create original programming -- Yahoo! may not exceed the failures of such original web content ventures as Pop.com or Digital Entertainment Network. Working in their favor is the penetration of high speed broadband and Yahoo!'s existing portfolio of media related offerings, including music, news, videos and radio.

Whether this is a return of the euphoria of the late 80s or the beginning of media substitution (as opposed to the long lost convergence) will only become apparent in hindsight, surely to be covered on news.yahoo.com.


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But will they pay for it?


Brian Roberts, chairman and CEO of Comcast, expects 1 billion televisions shows to be downloaded in 2005. Speaking last November at an industry conference, Roberts plans to have 4,000 VOD choices this year, bolstering his 2004 year end goal of 3,000, with the increase driven by offerings from Sony and MGM (see Multichannel News).

Seeking to provide greater value to subscribers to reduce churn, in addition to bundled services including telephony, internet access and cell service, VOD gives cable an advantage over satellite. The question is will it be more of a retention device or contribute to revenues more than pay-per-view.


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