Poor Prognostication?

In yet another sober reminder that we don't truly understand the future until it is the past, MediaWeek brings us news that DVR penetration has slowed and, ahem, might not grow as fast as predicted. "[T]he latest "On Demand Quarterly" report from Magna Global, which cites data from both DirecTV and Time Warner cable indicating that consumers are not flocking to DVRs as quickly as originally expected."

So why I am highlighting some rather anticlimactic information? Well, hopefully it will bring some perspective to the apocryphal trumpeting that the media has perpetrated with respect to the death of box office, the death of the theatrical release and the simultaneous death and prominence of DVD. Clearly there are issues to understand, such as the rapid escalation of marketing costs bringing into question the value of a theatrical release that is shortly followed with a similar campaign shilling the DVD. However, imminent threat is not one of the issues. Let's get some analysis without the heaping of gloom.