DVDoh!

Just to counterbalance the exciting world of straight-to-video, Variety noted today that "the home video rental market was down 2.3% in the first half of the year." With Blockbuster and Movie Gallery warnings that earning will be down this quarter due to a weak release schedule, a more realistic view of home video might be emerging. It is likely that much of the accelerating growth in DVD has come from lower introductory price points, a desire to build up libraries with better technology, and the underlying availability of more content.

Factoring in TV series and older movies not released on VCR, it's not surprising that DVD exploded the home video category. But now we are seeing grim forecasts of a slowing sales and rental market and a realization that titles that don't perform at theaters may also not perform in home video.

So what lesson can distributors, financiers, studios and producers learn? That quality (or at least interesting) content is key and that big budgets don't always result in big box office (see the summer action flick slump of The Island and Stealth).